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Swing States

antithesis

Posted 6:54 pm, 08/01/2024

It looks like Kamala will most likely pick Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro as her VP. That would help her solidify the critical 19 Pennsylvania electoral votes.

He's Jewish, though, which may be a concern to some of those sorta-kinda-racist moderates... they might consider a black woman, but a black woman AND a Jew?

But he's also the son of a Navy veteran, which could help with the military vote.

Sen. Mark Kelly of Arizona the other strong contender. Arizona only has 11 electoral votes, but it's still a swing state. He's an older white man of Irish descent, though, which obviously doesn't help him any. But he's a former astronaut and Navy Captain! So he's a definite possibility, but I think that Shapiro is the much stronger choice.

Others are Gov. Tim Walz of Minnesota, Gov. Andy Beshear of Kentucky, and Pete Buttigieg. Minnesota and Kentucky are solid states, though, and the gay vote is pretty obviously not going to vote for Trump, so there's no major advantage to tap either of them.

antithesis

Posted 12:21 pm, 07/31/2024

The election is going to come down to 5 states... Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada, and Arizona.

Looking at the states that are solid blue or red, if Kamala loses Pennsylvania then she loses the election... there's no way for her to get enough electoral votes without it.

This is very similar to the 2016 election, when Pennsylvania came down to Luzerne County! That one county flipped Pennsylvania to red, which gave Trump enough electoral votes to win.

You can expect both Kamala and Trump to focus very heavily on Pennsylvania for the next few months. And probably Michigan, too. They're going to say whatever those voters want to hear.

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